Memory·Updated May 28, 2026

HBM (high-bandwidth memory)

The memory that makes an accelerator usable — stacked DRAM bonded beside the GPU. Bandwidth, not compute, is the binding constraint, and supply is sold out across all three makers through 2026.

Tightness gaugeCritical

Tightness

74/ 100Critical

-3 this quarter — Eased slightly as Samsung qualifies HBM4 into Nvidia and all three suppliers ramp — but 2026 supply is sold out across the board and orders are booked into 2028.

Coverage35%
80
Lead time25%
85
Concentration20%
65
Momentum20%
60
Market leader share
~62%SK Hynix, Q2'25
as of 2025-09-26·Chosun Biz via Astute Group
2026 supply
Sold outall 3 makers
as of 2026-01-03·Introl
Server DRAM price move
+60–70%recent
as of 2026-01-07·Introl
HBM TAM 2028E
~$100Bfrom ~$35B in 2025
as of 2026-01-03·Introl
Why it gates the buildout

HBM is the stacked DRAM bonded next to the GPU die — bandwidth, not raw compute, is what limits large-model training and inference. Every accelerator needs multiple stacks, and supply is set by just three manufacturers, two of which control ~90% of output. So memory allocation gates how many usable AI chips actually exist, in lockstep with CoWoS packaging downstream.

Who's exposed
CompanyRoleExposure
SK HynixKRX 000660
HBM leader (~62%); ~70% of Nvidia Rubin HBM4Direct
First to ship HBM4; entering Nvidia supplyHigh
MicronMU
~21% share; 2026 sold out; HBM4 samplesHigh
TSMCTSM
HBM4 base-die (logic) partner to SK HynixModerate
TSV / stacking etch & deposition toolsModerate
Catalysts & timeline
Q1 2026Samsung begins HBM4 mass production; first shipments after Lunar New Year
H2 2026Nvidia Vera Rubin ramps on HBM4; 16-Hi stacks target Q4 2026
~2028Shortage expected to ease as new fabs (e.g. SK Hynix M15X) land capacity
What would loosen it

Unlike CoWoS's single source, three suppliers are all ramping hard — Samsung and Micron qualifying HBM4 into Nvidia broadens supply, and TrendForce flags a possible 2026 demand correction from AI-chip delays and inventory. Structurally, though, memory stays sold out through 2026 and most expect real relief only around 2028.

Latest developments
2026-02-09
Nvidia HBM4 allocation splits ~SK Hynix mid-50%, Samsung mid-20%, Micron ~20%
2026-02-04
TrendForce flags converging supply-demand and a 2026 correction phase as HBM4 ramps
2026-01-03
All three suppliers sold out through 2026; HBM TAM seen reaching ~$100B by 2028
Linked bottlenecks
Leading-edge foundry (2nm / N2)Server DRAM supplyCoWoS advanced packagingpower-grid

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