How the Tightness Gauge works
Every bottleneck on Copper Road carries one number: the Tightness Gauge, a 0 to 100 score for how constrained that part of the AI supply chain is right now. A higher score means supply is struggling to keep up with demand. A lower score means the pressure is easing.
The gauge exists so you can compare very different chokepoints — from HBM memory to gas turbines — on a single consistent scale, and so you can watch each one move over time.
What goes into the score
The score combines four inputs, each rated from 0 to 100, then weighted. The weighted total produces the headline score.
How well current and announced supply covers demand. This carries the most weight, because a real shortfall between what exists and what is needed is the clearest sign of a binding constraint.
How long it takes to add new supply or take delivery, from order to operation. Long lead times mean a shortage cannot be fixed quickly even when everyone wants it fixed.
How few suppliers, regions, or facilities control output. The more concentrated the source, the more fragile the supply.
The direction of travel over the last 90 days, read from dated developments. A constraint that is tightening scores higher than one holding steady.
The three bands
Supply is a hard limit on the pace of the buildout.
Supply is strained and worth watching, though not yet the binding constraint.
Supply is keeping up, or relief is arriving.
The sourcing standard
Every figure on Copper Road carries three things: the value, the date it was true as of, and a link to the source. If a number cannot be sourced, it does not go on the page.
The gauge is only as good as the data behind it, so we hold the data to that one rule and show the working on every claim.
What Copper Road is
Copper Road is a research and journalism publication about the AI supply chain. It reports on companies, technologies, and market conditions for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and speak to a licensed professional before making financial decisions.