Every sub-7nm logic chip and advanced DRAM is patterned on an EUV scanner, and ASML is the only company on earth that builds them — a textbook monopoly whose finite output rate is the hard ceiling on leading-edge capacity worldwide.
Tightness
+3 this quarter — Sole-supplier concentration (Canon and Nikon exited EUV), >12-month lead times, and a record backlog that exceeds a full year of sales. Orders are surging and memory demand has now reached the lithography layer; the only relief is ASML's own production ramp.
No EUV, no leading-edge logic and no advanced DRAM — the technology is the only way to pattern the smallest features at volume. Because ASML is the single global source and each scanner takes over a year to deliver, ASML's annual build rate physically caps how fast any foundry or memory maker, anywhere, can add cutting-edge capacity. The choke now extends into memory as HBM/DRAM demand reaches the lithography layer.
ASML scaling its own output and High-NA productivity gains (fewer exposure passes per layer), or any moderation in AI capex that thins the order book.
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