Power·Updated May 28, 2026

Gas turbines

The fastest dispatchable power for AI data centers — and only three makers globally. Backlogs stretch ~5 years, with delivery slots already selling into 2030.

Tightness gaugeCritical

Tightness

83/ 100Critical

+5 this quarter — GE Vernova's backlog jumped to 100 GW and customers pulled slots into 2030; the big three are effectively sold out for years.

Coverage35%
85
Lead time25%
90
Concentration20%
75
Momentum20%
80
GE Vernova backlog
~100 GW→110 by YE'26
as of 2026-04-23·GE Vernova Q1'26
Order book
→2030slots selling out
as of 2025-12-11·Utility Dive
Large-turbine makers
3globally
as of 2026-04-01·Primary VC
Price
~$600/kWby end '27, ~3x '19
as of 2026-04-23·Wood Mackenzie via Power-Eng
Why it gates the buildout

With grid interconnection taking years, on-site gas generation is the go-to for getting AI data centers powered fast — but turbine slots are now the gate, sold years out. Only three firms can build large-scale machines, so the queue for them effectively sets the timeline for a huge share of new self-supplied capacity.

Who's exposed
CompanyRoleExposure
Largest gas-turbine backlog (~100 GW)Direct
One of three large-turbine makersHigh
Doubling output; sold out into 2028High
Fuel-cell alternative to turbinesModerate
Gensets / backup generationModerate
Catalysts & timeline
Mid-2026GE Vernova targets ~20 GW/yr turbine production capacity
2026–28Mitsubishi doubling output; all three still sold out years ahead
2027+Fuel cells (Bloom) and SMRs scale as alternatives to scarce turbines
What would loosen it

Capacity expansions by the big three, plus fuel-cell and SMR substitution. But GE Vernova's CEO expects turbine reservations to be sold out through 2030 by the end of 2026.

Latest developments
2026-04-23
GE Vernova gas backlog grew 83→100 GW in Q1; new-order pricing up 10–20%; ~10 GW capacity left across 2029–30
2026-04-01
All three large-turbine makers report ~5-year backlogs; Mitsubishi sold out into 2028
2025-12-11
GE Vernova expects turbine reservations sold out through 2030 by end of 2026
Linked bottlenecks
Large power transformersGrid power & interconnectionnuclear-smron-site-power

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